June 5, 2012

Oh, the technology!

The Romney and Obama campaigns want supporters to be able to send contributions instantly using their smartphones, a step that would let telecommunications companies join in collecting fees that now flow to bank-card networks.

Campaigns will have access to texters’ phone numbers, creating the opportunity to “upsell” them for larger donations, according to Armour, a press secretary in Al Gore’s 1988 presidential campaign.

Political campaigns can expect to see 50 to 70 percent of a donation, with the rest going to fees to aggregators and carriers, Sege said. By comparison, a “card not present” transaction, such as one involving a credit card number entered into a campaign website, carries a fee ranging between 2 and 3 percent, according to Trish Wexler, spokeswoman for the Electronic Payments Coalition, a trade group that represents credit card networks and banks.

Tax the rich? It gets a little complex:

Increasing volatility in tax collections is complicating local governments’ emergence from the worst fiscal crisis since the Great Depression. States projected or dealt with a combined $54 billion of deficits in the fiscal year starting July 1, according to a report from the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, a nonprofit group in Washington focusing on issues affecting lower-income Americans.

California Governor Jerry Brown, a Democrat, last month cut the most-populous state’s revenue forecast by $4.3 billion after capital gains receipts fell 5 percent, instead of gaining 15 percent as forecast. In response, he proposed steps such as reducing government employees’ workweek by 5 percent.

A one-step rating cut in January by Moody’s Investors Service, to Aa3, has contributed to weakness in Connecticut debt, said Brian Steeves, a portfolio manager at Belle Haven Investments in White Plains, New York. The rank is Moody’s fourth-highest.

Moody’s cited pension and debt costs as well as the state’s susceptibility to “financial market fluctuations,” given the dependence on capital gains.

There are more official worries about the US national debt:

The U.S. government risks a fiscal crisis unless it makes significant changes in tax and spending policies, the Congressional Budget Office said.

The nonpartisan agency said today that without policy changes, the national debt within 15 years will top the historical peak set after World War II. In 1946, government debt amounted to 109 percent of the economy.

The gap between projected taxes and spending is so large, the report said, that if lawmakers merely wanted to prevent the debt-to-GDP ratio from increasing over the next 25 years, they’d have to immediately and permanently cut $700 billion from the $3.6 trillion U.S. budget.

Nothing will happen until the Treasury Secretary has to ask the President to play “Bond Salesman”. That’s what it took in Canada in 1994.

There is more despairing acknowledgement that the TMX / Maple deal is anti-competitive:

Chief among the concerns is that the result will be higher costs for users of TMX’s services that provide trading and market data, RBC said in its submissions. ITG, another large trading house, echoed many of RBC’s concerns in its own comments, which were also handed to the OSC on Monday.

RBC argues that the Maple proposal “will require a significantly different approach to the regulation of fees and fee models in Canada,” and will require the OSC to bulk up to deal with the added workload.

“The commission should recognize the very substantial increase in its capacity and capability that will be required in order to make it an effective regulator of market structure and fees,” RBC said.

ITG’s suggestions were along the same lines, saying that “the structure proposed by the Maple acquisition is fraught with conflicts of interest across every facet of the trading, clearing and settlement infrastructure of this country” and those conflicts “have the potential to seriously affect the ability of other participants to compete effectively in our capital markets.”

A successful deal will mean more jobs for more important regulators! Golly, I wonder if the regulators will approve it.

Investors have learned to demand to be shown the money whenever the Europeans politicians talk about ending the crisis. They are not yet so realistic about the G-7:

Asian stocks rose as finance ministers and central bank governors from the world’s leading economies agreed to coordinate their response to Europe’s financial crisis and U.S. service-industry growth tempered concern the world’s largest economy is slowing.

Finance ministers and central bank governors from the Group of Seven economies agreed to coordinate their response to Europe’s financial crisis on a conference call yesterday. G-7 officials said they will work together to help Spain and Greece place their public finances on a sustainable footing, Japanese Finance Minister Jun Azumi told reporters in Tokyo following the call.

I’m just overjoyed that they’re going to work together to coordinate their response! Yay!

The latest wooly-thinking comes from commentary on the Wisconsin gubernatorial re-run:

Over the past year, Wisconsinites divided into two camps: those who see public unions as critical to ensuring a stable middle-class and those like Mr. Walker who see them as the source of ballooning government debts and higher taxes.

Wrong! Public unions are not the source of ballooning government debts and higher taxes. The source of ballooning government debts and higher taxes are gutless wonder politicians (and do-gooders and their wooly minded supporters) who agree to ludicrous contracts. You will never hear me criticize welfare recipients, whether of the human or corporate variety, who ask for government largesse. Anybody can ask for money! It’s a free country! The villains are the idiots who give it to them.

What, never? Hardly ever.

Much more interesting was the note that:

But since Mr. Walker signed the collective-bargaining bill, which was passed last year by Wisconsin’s Republican-controlled legislature amid weeks of protests around the state capitol, membership in the state’s public-sector unions has withered.

That is because the law ended the automatic deduction of union dues. Public workers must now choose to opt in to the union, rather than being included by virtue of their job.

The result is that the main union that represents state and municipal workers in Wisconsin saw its membership fall by more than half to about 29,000 from 63,000 in the past year. The Wisconsin wing of the American Federation of Teachers lost a third of its members.

It was a mixed day for the Canadian preferred share market, with PerpetualPremiums gaining 10bp, FixedResets winning 18bp and DeemedRetractibles off 9bp. Insurance losers were again notable in the Performance Highlights table, but on a much less overwhelming basis than they were yesterday. Volume was average.

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.4128 % 2,322.3
FixedFloater 4.48 % 3.86 % 28,310 17.59 1 0.1890 % 3,518.1
Floater 3.11 % 3.14 % 76,489 19.32 3 -0.4128 % 2,507.4
OpRet 4.81 % 2.56 % 38,740 1.03 5 -0.0696 % 2,497.1
SplitShare 5.35 % 3.93 % 50,124 0.52 4 -1.2945 % 2,678.2
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.0696 % 2,283.4
Perpetual-Premium 5.45 % 3.08 % 79,937 0.60 26 0.0981 % 2,225.5
Perpetual-Discount 5.06 % 5.11 % 136,606 15.22 7 -0.3845 % 2,432.3
FixedReset 5.07 % 3.18 % 191,030 7.90 70 0.1843 % 2,382.6
Deemed-Retractible 5.04 % 3.91 % 149,988 3.16 45 -0.0885 % 2,292.1
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
FBS.PR.C SplitShare -5.47 % Not a real loss! There was exactly one trade today, for 3,000 shares at 10.60.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2012-12-15
Maturity Price : 10.00
Evaluated at bid price : 10.03
Bid-YTW : 3.93 %
MFC.PR.I FixedReset -1.74 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.33
Bid-YTW : 4.61 %
GWO.PR.I Deemed-Retractible -1.57 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.56
Bid-YTW : 5.83 %
POW.PR.D Perpetual-Discount -1.56 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2042-06-05
Maturity Price : 24.22
Evaluated at bid price : 24.56
Bid-YTW : 5.15 %
CIU.PR.A Perpetual-Discount -1.23 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2042-06-05
Maturity Price : 23.81
Evaluated at bid price : 24.10
Bid-YTW : 4.78 %
MFC.PR.B Deemed-Retractible -1.12 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.10
Bid-YTW : 6.28 %
RY.PR.H Deemed-Retractible 1.06 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2013-05-24
Maturity Price : 26.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.75
Bid-YTW : 2.56 %
GWO.PR.J FixedReset 1.13 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2013-12-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.85
Bid-YTW : 3.51 %
IAG.PR.E Deemed-Retractible 1.17 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2018-12-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.00
Bid-YTW : 5.24 %
BAM.PF.A FixedReset 2.20 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2042-06-05
Maturity Price : 23.11
Evaluated at bid price : 25.05
Bid-YTW : 4.10 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
CIU.PR.B FixedReset 263,360 National crossed 261,800 at 26.70.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-06-01
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.80
Bid-YTW : 3.01 %
BMO.PR.O FixedReset 250,019 National crossed four blocks: 40,000 and 50,000 shares, then 46,200 and 30,000, all at 26.63. TD crossed blocks of 47,900 and 25,000, both at 26.63 again.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-05-25
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.65
Bid-YTW : 3.13 %
BNS.PR.Z FixedReset 90,700 TD crossed 50,000 at 25.00.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.96
Bid-YTW : 3.04 %
BMO.PR.P FixedReset 87,600 National crossed 80,000 at 26.48.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2015-02-25
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.51
Bid-YTW : 3.15 %
FTS.PR.F Perpetual-Premium 79,762 Desjardins crossed 71,400 at 25.45.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-12-01
Maturity Price : 25.25
Evaluated at bid price : 25.32
Bid-YTW : 4.78 %
IAG.PR.G FixedReset 70,960 Recent new issue.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.26
Bid-YTW : 4.04 %
There were 32 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
MFC.PR.I FixedReset Quote: 24.33 – 24.79
Spot Rate : 0.4600
Average : 0.2647

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.33
Bid-YTW : 4.61 %

FBS.PR.C SplitShare Quote: 10.03 – 10.60
Spot Rate : 0.5700
Average : 0.4295

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2012-12-15
Maturity Price : 10.00
Evaluated at bid price : 10.03
Bid-YTW : 3.93 %

FTS.PR.E OpRet Quote: 26.32 – 26.99
Spot Rate : 0.6700
Average : 0.5603

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2013-06-01
Maturity Price : 25.75
Evaluated at bid price : 26.32
Bid-YTW : 2.56 %

HSB.PR.D Deemed-Retractible Quote: 25.36 – 25.85
Spot Rate : 0.4900
Average : 0.3975

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.36
Bid-YTW : 4.96 %

CIU.PR.A Perpetual-Discount Quote: 24.10 – 24.45
Spot Rate : 0.3500
Average : 0.2657

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2042-06-05
Maturity Price : 23.81
Evaluated at bid price : 24.10
Bid-YTW : 4.78 %

IAG.PR.F Deemed-Retractible Quote: 25.77 – 26.00
Spot Rate : 0.2300
Average : 0.1535

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2019-03-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.77
Bid-YTW : 5.33 %

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