August 10, 2012

No great joy in the Canadian jobs number:

Canadian job creation hit a stumbling block in July after two months of modest gains and following an impressive number of new jobs added earlier in the year.

A hefty 51,600 part-time positions were eliminated over the month, with women over 55 feeling the brunt of the job losses, according to Statistics Canada data released Friday. Employment for all other age groups remained roughly the same as the month before, and full-time employment increased by 21,300 jobs in July, compared with 29,300 new full-time jobs in June.

Some are calling for rate cuts; others aren’t:

“All things considered,” David Madani of Capital Economics told clients in a note, “this jobs report provides further support to our long-held view that the Bank of Canada may eventually be forced to cut interest rates.”

Mr. Madani’s analysis assumes policy makers will focus on the headline number, which suggests that Canada’s economy has slid into a soft patch, as job creation was paltry in May and June. The unemployment rate rose to 7.3 per cent in July from 7.2 per cent the previous. Canada now has lost an average of about 5,000 jobs over the past three months.

Policy makers keep an eye on changes in the average hourly wage rate of permanent employees to gauge whether inflation pressure is building. That number jumped 3.9 per cent in July from a year ago, to $24.49, the fastest since April, 2009.

Bigger wages will support consumer demand. But all things equal, any increase in purchases will put upward pressure on prices. “This…could be a source of concerns for the Bank of Canada if it proves persistent,” Nomura’s Charles St-Arnaud, a former Bank of Canada economist, said in his analysis of Friday’s jobs report.

It was a mildly negative day for the Canadian preferred share market, with PerpetualPremiums down 4bp, FixedResets off 1bp and DeemedRetractibles losing 6bp. Volatility was negligible. Volume was DEAD. You hear me? DEAD! I’ve seen more life in a regulator’s office!

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.2198 % 2,317.4
FixedFloater 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.2198 % 3,466.6
Floater 3.14 % 3.18 % 66,397 19.24 3 0.2198 % 2,502.2
OpRet 4.76 % 2.33 % 32,184 0.86 5 -0.1225 % 2,534.6
SplitShare 5.46 % 5.04 % 64,412 4.63 3 0.0665 % 2,769.7
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.1225 % 2,317.6
Perpetual-Premium 5.30 % 4.08 % 103,196 1.14 28 -0.0410 % 2,271.6
Perpetual-Discount 4.98 % 4.98 % 98,835 15.43 3 -0.2512 % 2,509.3
FixedReset 4.99 % 3.09 % 177,033 3.98 71 -0.0114 % 2,422.1
Deemed-Retractible 4.95 % 2.93 % 135,656 1.18 46 -0.0578 % 2,353.4
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
GWO.PR.N FixedReset -1.23 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.12
Bid-YTW : 3.56 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
MFC.PR.I FixedReset 55,350 Scotia sold 20,000 to anonymous at 25.27.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.40
Bid-YTW : 4.26 %
TRP.PR.C FixedReset 42,200 Scotia crossed 40,000 at 25.80.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2042-08-10
Maturity Price : 23.57
Evaluated at bid price : 25.85
Bid-YTW : 2.85 %
BAM.PR.X FixedReset 40,240 Scotia crossed 30,000 at 25.50.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2042-08-10
Maturity Price : 23.27
Evaluated at bid price : 25.31
Bid-YTW : 3.32 %
ENB.PR.N FixedReset 30,173 Recent new issue.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2042-08-10
Maturity Price : 23.18
Evaluated at bid price : 25.24
Bid-YTW : 3.85 %
ENB.PR.H FixedReset 14,175 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2042-08-10
Maturity Price : 23.23
Evaluated at bid price : 25.39
Bid-YTW : 3.50 %
HSB.PR.E FixedReset 12,900 Desjardins bought 11,100 from National at 26.90.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-06-30
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.92
Bid-YTW : 2.83 %
There were 1 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
POW.PR.G Perpetual-Premium Quote: 26.29 – 26.65
Spot Rate : 0.3600
Average : 0.2369

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2021-04-15
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.29
Bid-YTW : 4.95 %

HSB.PR.C Deemed-Retractible Quote: 25.72 – 26.48
Spot Rate : 0.7600
Average : 0.6394

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2012-09-09
Maturity Price : 25.50
Evaluated at bid price : 25.72
Bid-YTW : 1.32 %

ELF.PR.H Perpetual-Premium Quote: 25.57 – 26.10
Spot Rate : 0.5300
Average : 0.4254

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2021-04-17
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.57
Bid-YTW : 5.26 %

PWF.PR.O Perpetual-Premium Quote: 26.41 – 26.67
Spot Rate : 0.2600
Average : 0.1833

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2018-10-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.41
Bid-YTW : 4.81 %

MFC.PR.H FixedReset Quote: 25.59 – 25.80
Spot Rate : 0.2100
Average : 0.1368

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2017-03-19
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.59
Bid-YTW : 4.21 %

TCA.PR.X Perpetual-Premium Quote: 50.93 – 51.19
Spot Rate : 0.2600
Average : 0.1884

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2013-10-15
Maturity Price : 50.00
Evaluated at bid price : 50.93
Bid-YTW : 4.12 %

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