June 12, 2009

More trader games in the CDS market – and now the rules might change:

At issue in the Amherst trades is whether sellers of protection on mortgage bonds can purchase loans underlying the debt at above-market prices to prevent a default that would trigger payments to buyers of the contracts. Credit-default swaps pay the buyer if the securities aren’t repaid as expected.

The call of the securities at their face value of $29 million, the amount remaining in the 2005 subprime-mortgage bond issue, caused the banks to lose money. Bankers on the American Securitization Forum call probably couldn’t ban the strategy for existing trades, the people said.

Proposals included creating agreements for new swaps that would force sellers to disclose whether they have the right to call the securities, and “best practices” guidelines to say such trades shouldn’t be executed, they said.

$29-million? Banks are prepared to admit that their traders lost a lot of money in a $29-million market?

They haven’t learned a damn thing, have they? Giving a block of capital to some kid with an MBA but not enough brains to realize you don’t play in a rigged market – or one that’s small enough to rig. $29-million? That’s not even a big ticket.

What does buying CDS protection mean, anyway? It’s nothing more nor less than shorting a bond. What kind of moron shorts into a $29-million market? What kind of useless twerp is the moron’s supervisor?

Let’s not have any more rules. Let’s just see a few bozos get fired. Or, at least, eating their losses like big boys and learning from the experience. As I have stressed many times on this blog, debt decoupling can result in strange things happening … particularly in a rinky dink $29-million market.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Boston has released a working paper by Todd Prono that looks interesting, but which I don’t have time to read now. So, without comment, here’s the abstract:

A pricing restriction is developed to test the validity of the CAPM conditional on a prior belief about the correlation between the true market return and the proxy return used in the test. Distinguishing this pricing restriction from competing tests also based upon the relative efficiency of the proxy return is a consideration for the proxy’s mismeasurement of the market return. Failure to account for this mismeasurement biases tests of the CAPM towards rejection by overstating the inefficiency of the proxy. A time-varying version of this pricing restriction links mismeasurement of the market return to time-variation in beta

Pretty much a nothing day in the major sectors of the market, but volume continued heavy and Floating Rate issues continued to shine.

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 1.5718 % 1,332.8
FixedFloater 6.87 % 5.38 % 30,438 16.45 1 3.4618 % 2,197.3
Floater 2.86 % 3.21 % 85,498 19.22 3 1.5718 % 1,665.1
OpRet 4.98 % 3.81 % 141,865 3.63 14 0.0849 % 2,188.3
SplitShare 5.82 % 5.97 % 57,155 4.24 3 -0.2435 % 1,875.2
Interest-Bearing 5.99 % 7.46 % 23,160 0.53 1 0.0999 % 1,991.2
Perpetual-Premium 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.0655 % 1,737.9
Perpetual-Discount 6.32 % 6.31 % 159,942 13.46 71 -0.0655 % 1,600.5
FixedReset 5.69 % 4.85 % 542,562 4.37 39 0.0900 % 2,008.5
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
IAG.PR.A Perpetual-Discount -2.80 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-06-12
Maturity Price : 17.01
Evaluated at bid price : 17.01
Bid-YTW : 6.79 %
CU.PR.B Perpetual-Discount -1.90 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-06-12
Maturity Price : 24.53
Evaluated at bid price : 24.83
Bid-YTW : 6.08 %
BAM.PR.N Perpetual-Discount -1.53 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-06-12
Maturity Price : 15.45
Evaluated at bid price : 15.45
Bid-YTW : 7.73 %
CIU.PR.A Perpetual-Discount -1.52 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-06-12
Maturity Price : 18.76
Evaluated at bid price : 18.76
Bid-YTW : 6.19 %
GWO.PR.I Perpetual-Discount -1.25 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-06-12
Maturity Price : 17.41
Evaluated at bid price : 17.41
Bid-YTW : 6.49 %
GWO.PR.G Perpetual-Discount -1.24 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-06-12
Maturity Price : 19.92
Evaluated at bid price : 19.92
Bid-YTW : 6.55 %
BNA.PR.C SplitShare -1.02 % Asset coverage of 1.9-:1 as of May 31, according to the company.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2019-01-10
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 15.50
Bid-YTW : 10.91 %
ELF.PR.F Perpetual-Discount 1.35 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-06-12
Maturity Price : 18.76
Evaluated at bid price : 18.76
Bid-YTW : 7.22 %
BAM.PR.B Floater 1.41 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-06-12
Maturity Price : 12.23
Evaluated at bid price : 12.23
Bid-YTW : 3.21 %
BAM.PR.O OpRet 1.47 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Option Certainty
Maturity Date : 2013-06-30
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.50
Bid-YTW : 6.69 %
HSB.PR.C Perpetual-Discount 1.65 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-06-12
Maturity Price : 20.30
Evaluated at bid price : 20.30
Bid-YTW : 6.31 %
MFC.PR.B Perpetual-Discount 1.67 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-06-12
Maturity Price : 18.86
Evaluated at bid price : 18.86
Bid-YTW : 6.20 %
TRI.PR.B Floater 2.22 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-06-12
Maturity Price : 17.00
Evaluated at bid price : 17.00
Bid-YTW : 2.31 %
BAM.PR.G FixedFloater 3.46 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-06-12
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 15.84
Bid-YTW : 5.38 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
TD.PR.O Perpetual-Discount 127,185 National crossed 110,000 at 19.91.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-06-12
Maturity Price : 19.93
Evaluated at bid price : 19.93
Bid-YTW : 6.18 %
RY.PR.R FixedReset 122,035 National crossed 50,000 at 26.95; RBC crossed 10,000 at 26.97, then another 29,100 at 26.95.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-03-26
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 27.00
Bid-YTW : 4.49 %
CIU.PR.B FixedReset 101,400 Desjardins crossed 100,000 at 27.50.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-07-01
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 27.55
Bid-YTW : 4.54 %
BAM.PR.P FixedReset 91,364 Recent new issue.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-10-30
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.59
Bid-YTW : 6.57 %
MFC.PR.E FixedReset 70,675 Recent new issue.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-10-19
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.23
Bid-YTW : 5.48 %
CM.PR.I Perpetual-Discount 62,780 Nesbitt crossed 40,000 at 18.60.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-06-12
Maturity Price : 18.51
Evaluated at bid price : 18.51
Bid-YTW : 6.46 %
There were 43 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.

One Response to “June 12, 2009”

  1. […] mentioned some trader-games in the CDS market on June 12 – James Hamilton of Econbrowser comments: For my money, the first rule we need would be a law, not […]

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