Bond markets are getting indigestion:
Long-term borrowing costs from the U.S. to Germany and Japan hit their highest in decades on Tuesday due to ballooning government debt and geopolitics, raising borrowing costs for companies and households and complicating policy.
Bond markets are entering an era where the inflation and interest rate outlook is more uncertain and the upside risks are greater, as U.S. President Donald Trump’s policies — from tariffs to war — upend the global order.
Debt levels in developed countries are reaching thresholds that look increasingly unsustainable, with the U.S. debt pile nearing US$40-trillion. The war in Iran is dragging on, pushing up oil prices and inflation and hitting global growth.
In addition, massive borrowing by technology companies to fund a buildout of artificial intelligence infrastructure is competing with demand for government bonds.
…
Thirty-year bond yields in the United States, the world’s deepest and most systemically crucial government bond market, hit their highest since 2007 as oil prices rose back above $90, fanning inflation worries as U.S.-Iran peace hopes faded.Their yields pulled back in early afternoon trading with U.S. 30-year yields last down 2.4 basis points at 5.286 per cent.
In Japan, inflation angst and expectations that the central bank could hike interest rates as early as September pushed 10-year borrowing costs to a three-decade high just under 3 per cent..
In Europe, Germany’s 10-year Bund yield touched its highest since 2011, French yields were at their highest since 2008 and Britain’s 30-year borrowing costs neared peaks hit in May that marked the highest levels since 1998.
| HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices Values are provisional and are finalized monthly |
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| Index | Mean Current Yield (at bid) |
Median YTW |
Median Average Trading Value |
Median Mod Dur (YTW) |
Issues | Day’s Perf. | Index Value |
| Ratchet | 0.00 % | 0.00 % | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.3060 % | 2,636.5 |
| FixedFloater | 0.00 % | 0.00 % | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.3060 % | 4,965.0 |
| Floater | 5.48 % | 5.61 % | 31,972 | 14.45 | 3 | 0.3060 % | 2,861.4 |
| OpRet | 0.00 % | 0.00 % | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | -0.0394 % | 3,653.2 |
| SplitShare | 4.77 % | 4.93 % | 55,249 | 2.58 | 5 | -0.0394 % | 4,362.7 |
| Interest-Bearing | 0.00 % | 0.00 % | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | -0.0394 % | 3,403.9 |
| Perpetual-Premium | 5.64 % | 5.55 % | 55,730 | 6.77 | 12 | -0.2212 % | 3,079.6 |
| Perpetual-Discount | 5.49 % | 5.55 % | 37,900 | 14.55 | 21 | -0.0355 % | 3,437.0 |
| FixedReset Disc | 5.52 % | 5.86 % | 94,803 | 14.04 | 17 | -0.1858 % | 3,403.8 |
| Insurance Straight | 5.36 % | 5.42 % | 43,836 | 14.65 | 20 | -0.1667 % | 3,357.8 |
| FloatingReset | 0.00 % | 0.00 % | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | -0.1858 % | 4,156.1 |
| FixedReset Prem | 5.90 % | 4.29 % | 77,067 | 2.11 | 31 | -0.0883 % | 2,669.8 |
| FixedReset Bank Non | 0.00 % | 0.00 % | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | -0.1858 % | 3,479.4 |
| FixedReset Ins Non | 5.19 % | 4.80 % | 49,342 | 3.02 | 14 | -0.1312 % | 3,287.7 |
| Performance Highlights | |||
| Issue | Index | Change | Notes |
| ENB.PF.C | FixedReset Disc | -2.47 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2056-08-18 Maturity Price : 22.74 Evaluated at bid price : 23.65 Bid-YTW : 6.14 % |
| ENB.PR.Y | FixedReset Disc | -2.45 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2056-08-18 Maturity Price : 22.48 Evaluated at bid price : 23.07 Bid-YTW : 6.05 % |
| SLF.PR.D | Insurance Straight | -2.26 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2056-08-18 Maturity Price : 21.35 Evaluated at bid price : 21.62 Bid-YTW : 5.21 % |
| ENB.PR.T | FixedReset Prem | -2.23 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2056-08-18 Maturity Price : 23.25 Evaluated at bid price : 24.55 Bid-YTW : 5.95 % |
| MFC.PR.Q | FixedReset Ins Non | -2.18 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2056-08-18 Maturity Price : 23.68 Evaluated at bid price : 25.14 Bid-YTW : 5.85 % |
| POW.PR.A | Perpetual-Premium | -2.12 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2056-08-18 Maturity Price : 24.21 Evaluated at bid price : 24.50 Bid-YTW : 5.78 % |
| ENB.PF.E | FixedReset Disc | -1.73 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2056-08-18 Maturity Price : 22.80 Evaluated at bid price : 23.83 Bid-YTW : 6.07 % |
| NA.PR.C | FixedReset Prem | -1.31 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Call Maturity Date : 2027-11-15 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 26.27 Bid-YTW : 2.90 % |
| MFC.PR.B | Insurance Straight | -1.29 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2056-08-18 Maturity Price : 22.66 Evaluated at bid price : 22.90 Bid-YTW : 5.15 % |
| BN.PF.C | Perpetual-Discount | -1.24 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2056-08-18 Maturity Price : 21.31 Evaluated at bid price : 21.58 Bid-YTW : 5.69 % |
| GWO.PR.Y | Insurance Straight | -1.21 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2056-08-18 Maturity Price : 21.15 Evaluated at bid price : 21.15 Bid-YTW : 5.40 % |
| BN.PR.T | FixedReset Disc | -1.20 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2056-08-18 Maturity Price : 23.12 Evaluated at bid price : 23.83 Bid-YTW : 5.83 % |
| BN.PF.A | FixedReset Prem | -1.15 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Call Maturity Date : 2028-09-30 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 25.90 Bid-YTW : 5.41 % |
| ENB.PR.H | FixedReset Disc | -1.01 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2056-08-18 Maturity Price : 23.28 Evaluated at bid price : 23.61 Bid-YTW : 5.83 % |
| PWF.PR.P | FixedReset Disc | 1.14 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2056-08-18 Maturity Price : 21.84 Evaluated at bid price : 22.25 Bid-YTW : 5.42 % |
| BN.PR.X | FixedReset Disc | 1.15 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2056-08-18 Maturity Price : 21.58 Evaluated at bid price : 21.95 Bid-YTW : 5.82 % |
| BN.PF.G | FixedReset Prem | 1.35 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Call Maturity Date : 2030-07-01 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 26.35 Bid-YTW : 4.37 % |
| CCS.PR.C | Insurance Straight | 1.53 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2056-08-18 Maturity Price : 23.03 Evaluated at bid price : 23.30 Bid-YTW : 5.43 % |
| GWO.PR.I | Insurance Straight | 1.79 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2056-08-18 Maturity Price : 21.38 Evaluated at bid price : 21.65 Bid-YTW : 5.26 % |
| ENB.PR.F | FixedReset Disc | 2.11 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2056-08-18 Maturity Price : 23.92 Evaluated at bid price : 24.25 Bid-YTW : 5.95 % |
| Volume Highlights | |||
| Issue | Index | Shares Traded |
Notes |
| BN.PF.F | FixedReset Prem | 212,549 | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Call Maturity Date : 2029-10-01 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 25.64 Bid-YTW : 5.24 % |
| FTS.PR.G | FixedReset Prem | 16,850 | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Call Maturity Date : 2028-09-01 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 25.90 Bid-YTW : 4.95 % |
| BMO.PR.E | FixedReset Prem | 13,201 | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Call Maturity Date : 2028-11-25 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 26.50 Bid-YTW : 3.99 % |
| NA.PR.K | FixedReset Prem | 12,575 | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Call Maturity Date : 2029-05-01 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 28.10 Bid-YTW : 3.01 % |
| There were 0 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares. | |||
| Wide Spread Highlights | ||
| See TMX DataLinx: ‘Last’ != ‘Close’ and the posts linked therein for an idea of why these quotes are so horrible. | ||
| Issue | Index | Quote Data and Yield Notes |
| PWF.PR.P | FixedReset Disc | Quote: 22.25 – 23.49 Spot Rate : 1.2400 Average : 0.8059 YTW SCENARIO |
| ENB.PF.C | FixedReset Disc | Quote: 23.65 – 24.65 Spot Rate : 1.0000 Average : 0.6449 YTW SCENARIO |
| MFC.PR.Q | FixedReset Ins Non | Quote: 25.14 – 26.14 Spot Rate : 1.0000 Average : 0.6919 YTW SCENARIO |
| ENB.PR.Y | FixedReset Disc | Quote: 23.07 – 24.00 Spot Rate : 0.9300 Average : 0.6398 YTW SCENARIO |
| POW.PR.A | Perpetual-Premium | Quote: 24.50 – 25.23 Spot Rate : 0.7300 Average : 0.4565 YTW SCENARIO |
| GWO.PR.N | FixedReset Ins Non | Quote: 19.50 – 21.33 Spot Rate : 1.8300 Average : 1.5780 YTW SCENARIO |