May 21, 2009

The Bank of Canada has released a working paper by Hajime Tomura, Heterogeneous Beliefs and Housing-Market Boom-Bust Cycles in a Small Open Economy:

This paper introduces heterogeneous beliefs among households in a small open economy model for the Canadian economy. The model suggests that simultaneous boom-bust cycles in house prices, output, investment, consumption and hours worked emerge when credit-constrained mortgage borrowers expect that future house prices will rise and this expectation is neither shared by savers nor realized ex-post. With sticky prices and a standard monetary policy rule, the model shows that the nominal policy interest rate and the CPI inflation rate decline during housing booms and rise as house prices fall. These results replicate the stylized features of housing-market boom-bust cycles in industrialized countries. Policy experiments demonstrate that stronger policy responses to inflation amplify housing-market boom-bust cycles. Also, higher loan-to-value ratios amplify housing-market boom-bust cycles by encouraging speculative housing investments by mortgage borrowers during housing booms and increasing liquidation of housing collateral during housing busts.

OSFI has released a new Corporate Brochure. The Bank for International Settlements has released Principles for sound stress testing practices and supervision.

DBRS has downgraded ABN AMRO:

ABN AMRO Bank’s outstanding trust preferred securities have been downgraded from BBB to BB. The trend on these securities is Negative. Considering the significant cyclical and company-specific headwinds that RBS faces, DBRS sees an elevated risk of nonpayment of preferred dividends (which DBRS defines as a default on these instruments) which would likely entail a nonpayment of dividends on these securities.

Volume continued at its elevated levels but the market’s ascent was checked; PerpetualDiscounts only just barely managed to squeak out a gain, while FixedResets were slightly negative. But how ’bout them Floaters, eh? Up 17.2% on the month-to-date.

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 3.3315 % 1,175.3
FixedFloater 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 3.3315 % 1,900.7
Floater 3.20 % 3.88 % 86,137 17.63 3 3.3315 % 1,468.3
OpRet 5.04 % 3.75 % 129,970 2.59 15 0.0847 % 2,158.1
SplitShare 5.92 % 5.61 % 56,181 4.24 3 0.2490 % 1,830.3
Interest-Bearing 5.99 % 6.70 % 26,838 0.59 1 0.0999 % 1,991.2
Perpetual-Premium 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.0242 % 1,710.0
Perpetual-Discount 6.39 % 6.43 % 159,106 13.29 71 0.0242 % 1,574.9
FixedReset 5.72 % 4.84 % 496,432 4.49 37 -0.0924 % 1,983.2
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
GWO.PR.G Perpetual-Discount -3.88 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-05-21
Maturity Price : 20.06
Evaluated at bid price : 20.06
Bid-YTW : 6.60 %
CM.PR.I Perpetual-Discount -1.55 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-05-21
Maturity Price : 17.82
Evaluated at bid price : 17.82
Bid-YTW : 6.68 %
IAG.PR.C FixedReset -1.50 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-05-21
Maturity Price : 25.56
Evaluated at bid price : 25.61
Bid-YTW : 5.50 %
MFC.PR.B Perpetual-Discount -1.42 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-05-21
Maturity Price : 18.74
Evaluated at bid price : 18.74
Bid-YTW : 6.33 %
RY.PR.W Perpetual-Discount -1.27 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-05-21
Maturity Price : 19.38
Evaluated at bid price : 19.38
Bid-YTW : 6.37 %
SLF.PR.B Perpetual-Discount -1.25 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-05-21
Maturity Price : 18.17
Evaluated at bid price : 18.17
Bid-YTW : 6.73 %
MFC.PR.C Perpetual-Discount -1.21 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-05-21
Maturity Price : 17.89
Evaluated at bid price : 17.89
Bid-YTW : 6.30 %
BAM.PR.K Floater -1.07 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-05-21
Maturity Price : 10.15
Evaluated at bid price : 10.15
Bid-YTW : 3.92 %
IAG.PR.A Perpetual-Discount -1.00 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-05-21
Maturity Price : 16.83
Evaluated at bid price : 16.83
Bid-YTW : 6.97 %
RY.PR.H Perpetual-Discount 1.14 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-05-21
Maturity Price : 23.01
Evaluated at bid price : 23.16
Bid-YTW : 6.14 %
HSB.PR.D Perpetual-Discount 1.31 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-05-21
Maturity Price : 19.35
Evaluated at bid price : 19.35
Bid-YTW : 6.58 %
NA.PR.L Perpetual-Discount 1.52 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-05-21
Maturity Price : 19.40
Evaluated at bid price : 19.40
Bid-YTW : 6.31 %
BAM.PR.N Perpetual-Discount 1.62 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-05-21
Maturity Price : 15.07
Evaluated at bid price : 15.07
Bid-YTW : 8.05 %
TRI.PR.B Floater 8.26 % Zooming up in the draft of the BAM floaters! Traded 5,200 shares in a range of 15.75-16.96 before closing at 16.51-49, 1×7.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-05-21
Maturity Price : 16.51
Evaluated at bid price : 16.51
Bid-YTW : 2.40 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
SLF.PR.F FixedReset 176,909 Recent new issue.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-07-30
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.81
Bid-YTW : 5.31 %
BNS.PR.P FixedReset 117,605 Nesbitt crossed 100,000 at 24.93.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-05-21
Maturity Price : 24.84
Evaluated at bid price : 24.90
Bid-YTW : 4.21 %
CM.PR.I Perpetual-Discount 86,785 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-05-21
Maturity Price : 17.82
Evaluated at bid price : 17.82
Bid-YTW : 6.68 %
RY.PR.R FixedReset 64,202 RBC crossed 13,600 at 26.60.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-03-26
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.46
Bid-YTW : 4.91 %
RY.PR.Y FixedReset 59,504 Recent new issue.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-12-24
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.12
Bid-YTW : 5.28 %
BAM.PR.H OpRet 56,707 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Soft Maturity
Maturity Date : 2012-03-30
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.50
Bid-YTW : 6.89 %
There were 48 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.

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