Fearless Prediction : Epcor Power Equity 4.85% Issue will Crash!

This issue was announced May 7. It seemed reasonable – if aggressive – at the time … but the credit ratings aren’t all that great AND it’s a perp.

The HIMI PerpetualDiscount index is down 0.66% since the announcement date AND credit spreads have widened.

The curvePrice of this issue, measured against the taxable curve, is now $24.34.

Price due to base-rate :  23.52
Price due to short-term :  -0.50
Price due to long-term :   1.63
Price due to Interest Income :   0.00
Price to to Cumulative Dividends :   0.00
Price due to SplitShareCorp :   0.00
Price due to Retractibility :   0.00
Price due to Credit Spread (2) :   0.00
Price due to Liquidity :   1.21
Price due to Floating Rate :   0.00
Price due to Credit Spread (3) :  -1.69
Price due to error :   0.17
Price due to Credit Spread (High) :   0.00
Price due to Credit Spread (Low) :   0.00

Now, Pfd-3 issues are very hard to analyze … they behave less like fixed-income instruments than higher rated issues. And this issue has a “split rating” – S&P rates them P-2(low), higher than does DBRS (Pfd-3(high)) – which makes things even more difficult.

When the issue was announced, the curve price was $24.66:

Price due to base-rate :  23.43
Price due to short-term :  -0.24
Price due to long-term :   1.42
Price due to Interest Income :   0.00
Price to to Cumulative Dividends :   0.00
Price due to SplitShareCorp :   0.00
Price due to Retractibility :   0.00
Price due to Credit Spread (2) :   0.00
Price due to Liquidity :   1.48
Price due to Floating Rate :   0.00
Price due to Credit Spread (3) :  -1.57
Price due to error :   0.14
Price due to Credit Spread (High) :   0.00
Price due to Credit Spread (Low) :   0.00

I will be glued to my screen on the projected closing date of May 25, eager to see how this one plays out!

Update, 2007-5-22: Curve Price now 24.22.

Update, 2007-5-23: Curve Price now 24.08.

Update, 2007-5-24: Will commence trading tomorrow, with the symbol EPP.PR.A. Curve Price now 23.81. We shall see!

One Response to “Fearless Prediction : Epcor Power Equity 4.85% Issue will Crash!”

  1. […] As I predicted last week, EPP.PR.A crashed on opening today. […]

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